MEV 025: Unit 07 – Impacts of climate change on population security

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 UNIT 7: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POPULATION SECURITY

7.1 Introduction

Climate change poses a direct threat to population security by undermining the fundamental systems that sustain human life—health, livelihoods, and economic productivity. As global temperatures rise, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, affecting agricultural yields, spreading diseases, displacing populations, and weakening the economic systems people depend on.

Population security refers to the protection and well-being of people from environmental, economic, and health risks that can destabilize communities and nations. Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities, especially for marginalized and low-income populations who are least equipped to adapt. The impacts are particularly significant in developing countries like India, where a large share of the population depends on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry.

7.2 Objectives

  • To understand how climate change affects population security.
  • To explore health-related consequences of climate change.
  • To analyze the effects of climate change on economic productivity and livelihoods.
  • To examine strategies for sustainable livelihoods under climate stress.
  • To understand India’s commitments under its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

7.3 Impact of Climate Change on Health

Climate change affects human health both directly and indirectly:

Direct Impacts:

  • Heatwaves cause dehydration, heatstroke, and cardiovascular stress, especially in the elderly and outdoor workers.
  • Extreme weather events (e.g., floods, cyclones) cause injuries, loss of life, and trauma.

Indirect Impacts:

  • Vector-borne diseases such as dengue, malaria, and chikungunya expand into new regions due to shifting temperatures and rainfall.
  • Water-borne diseases like cholera and diarrhea become more frequent with flooding and poor sanitation.
  • Malnutrition rises as crop failures lead to food insecurity and higher prices.
  • Mental health is affected due to displacement, uncertainty, and recurring disasters.

Example: The 2015 Chennai floods led to water contamination, outbreaks of waterborne diseases, and disruption of hospital services.

7.4 Climate Change Impacts on Economic Productivity

Climate change has measurable impacts on national and local economies:

  • Labor Productivity: Increased temperatures reduce working hours, especially in sectors like construction, agriculture, and transportation.
  • Agriculture: Shifting rainfall patterns and droughts lower yields, directly impacting farmers' income and food prices.
  • Energy Demand: Rising temperatures increase demand for cooling, stressing energy infrastructure and increasing costs.
  • Insurance and Property Loss: Extreme weather events cause asset damage and increase insurance premiums.
  • Disaster Recovery Costs: Rebuilding infrastructure after disasters diverts resources from development goals.

World Bank estimates suggest that climate change could push over 100 million people into poverty by 2030 due to declining productivity and rising costs.

7.5 Climate Change Impacts on Livelihood Security

Livelihoods, especially in rural and informal sectors, are highly sensitive to climatic variations:

  • Agricultural Livelihoods: Rain-fed farming is vulnerable to droughts and delayed monsoons, causing crop failure and income loss.
  • Fisheries: Ocean warming, acidification, and coastal erosion affect fish stocks, reducing catch size and threatening fishing communities.
  • Forest-based Livelihoods: Shifting species distribution and increased forest fires reduce availability of forest produce.
  • Migration: Seasonal and distress migration increases as people search for alternative work due to livelihood failure.

Women, indigenous groups, and landless laborers are disproportionately affected due to limited access to adaptive resources.

7.6 Sustainable Livelihoods

A sustainable livelihood can cope with and recover from stresses such as climate change while maintaining or enhancing its capabilities and assets.

Key Strategies:

  • Diversification of income: Encouraging small enterprises, animal husbandry, and non-farm employment.
  • Climate-smart agriculture: Use of drought-resistant crops, micro-irrigation, organic farming.
  • Community-based resource management: Local governance of water, forests, and soil to improve resilience.
  • Micro-finance and insurance: Providing safety nets during climate shocks.
  • Skill development programs: Training for alternative employment in green and climate-resilient sectors.

Sustainable livelihood strategies reduce dependency on vulnerable systems and build adaptive capacity among vulnerable populations.

7.7 Climate Change Threat to Population Security

Population security is threatened when climate risks outpace a community’s ability to respond or adapt. Key challenges include:

  • Displacement: Rising sea levels and floods force relocation of entire communities, particularly in low-lying areas.
  • Food insecurity: Reduced yields and supply chain disruptions increase hunger and malnutrition.
  • Water stress: Glacial retreat and declining groundwater levels reduce freshwater availability.
  • Urban vulnerabilities: Migration to urban areas increases pressure on housing, sanitation, and employment in already overburdened cities.
  • Conflict: Competition for scarce resources like water and fertile land can lead to social tensions and conflict.

Protecting population security requires inclusive, rights-based, and sustainable climate policies that address both immediate needs and long-term risks.

7.8 India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)

Under the Paris Agreement, India submitted its INDCs in 2015 with the aim to:

  • Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
  • Achieve 40% of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030.
  • Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through afforestation.
  • Promote sustainable lifestyles, climate resilience, and climate justice.

India’s INDCs also emphasize:

  • Green cover expansion
  • Water conservation
  • Renewable energy development (solar, wind, bio-energy)
  • Smart cities and low-emission transport systems
  • Capacity building and education

These commitments reflect a balance between environmental responsibility and development needs for a populous, rapidly growing nation.

7.9 Let Us Sum Up

  • Climate change significantly threatens population security by impacting health, economic productivity, and livelihoods.
  • Vulnerable populations face the greatest risks due to poor access to adaptation resources.
  • Sustainable livelihoods offer long-term solutions by reducing exposure and increasing resilience.
  • India’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement outline an ambitious framework for mitigation and adaptation.
  • Addressing population security in the climate context requires cross-sectoral and inclusive strategies.

7.10 Keywords

  1. Population Security – The protection of human well-being and rights amid environmental and economic challenges.
  2. Climate-Sensitive Livelihoods – Occupations highly dependent on climatic conditions (e.g., farming, fishing).
  3. Vector-borne Diseases – Illnesses transmitted by organisms like mosquitoes and ticks (e.g., malaria).
  4. Heat Stress – Physical stress due to prolonged exposure to high temperatures.
  5. Climate-smart Agriculture – Techniques that increase agricultural productivity and resilience.
  6. Sustainable Livelihood – A livelihood that can cope with shocks and maintain or improve resources for the future.
  7. Migration – Movement of people often due to environmental, economic, or social factors.
  8. INTDC – Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.
  9. Climate Resilience – The ability of systems and communities to recover from climate-induced disruptions.
  10. Adaptive Capacity – The ability of a population to adjust to climate change and moderate potential damage.

 

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